Everything Afghanistan achieved over the last two decades has crumbled within months of the Taliban’s return. Since mid-August 2021, the pace of collapse has been as breath-taking as the disintegration of the former Islamic Republic itself: in just four months, the country has spiralled into hunger, mass unemployment, economic breakdown, an exodus of educated professionals, administrative chaos, arbitrary justice, and all the hallmarks of a failed state.
The world is witnessing disaster in real time. Yet it has failed either to stop the implosion or to hold accountable its chief architect—Pakistan. Worse still, many capitals continue to view Islamabad as part of the solution, or even as a victim of instability. In reality, Pakistan has been the central problem in Afghanistan for more than four decades. To miscast it otherwise is delusional.
Pakistan’s Hand in the Taliban’s Rise
During Afghanistan’s best chance at normalcy—when billions of dollars in international aid were rebuilding institutions—Pakistan provided sanctuary, training, weapons, tactical advice, and financial conduits to the Taliban. From 2004 onwards, the ISI actively fuelled insurgency, sabotaged peace talks, and elevated the most ruthless elements of the movement: the Haqqani Network, long designated as a terrorist organisation for its links to al-Qaeda and other global jihadist groups.
After Mullah Omar’s death, Pakistan manoeuvred to install successors beholden to it, notably Mullah Mansour, and subsequently positioned Sirajuddin Haqqani as deputy Amir. This gave the Haqqanis enormous influence inside the Taliban hierarchy. When Kabul fell in August 2021, Pakistan ensured it was Haqqani fighters—not the Kandahari faction—who seized the capital, securing Islamabad’s grip over the levers of Afghan power.
Why the Haqqani Ascendancy Matters
If the Taliban’s internal power struggle were only about spoils, the world might have tolerated it. Instead, the rise of the Haqqanis—the most radical, uncompromising faction—has blocked any prospect of moderation. Their extremist agenda and continuing ties to foreign terrorist networks make meaningful engagement with the Taliban regime nearly impossible.
Even the OIC, despite convening an extraordinary session on humanitarian aid, has been hesitant to release funds directly. Many Muslim-majority states fear that a consolidated Taliban regime could embolden radical groups within their own borders. The fact that key figures in Kabul’s new government remain on the UN Sanctions List has further chilled international assistance.
Pakistan’s Exploitation of the Crisis
Having installed its proxies in Kabul, Pakistan now seeks to treat Afghanistan as its “fifth province.” It demands that all aid, financing, and relief be routed through Islamabad, thereby tightening its stranglehold. Unsurprisingly, even the OIC has bypassed Pakistan, opting to channel support via the Islamic Development Bank instead.
Pakistan also lobbies for the release of Afghanistan’s $9.5 billion in frozen reserves, anticipating that any financial flows will pass through its own collapsing banking system and bolster its precarious economy. This reveals Islamabad’s true intent: not humanitarian concern for Afghans but self-preservation through manipulation of their tragedy.
Breaking the Cycle of Dependency
Until Afghanistan is freed from Pakistan’s malign influence, no aid programme—no matter how generous—will succeed. Channelling relief through the very state that enabled Afghanistan’s collapse risks compounding the crisis.
The world may find it necessary to engage with the Taliban regime in some form. But such engagement cannot succeed while Pakistan perpetuates radicalism from behind the scenes. Unless the international community decisively confronts Islamabad’s role—by severing its enabling links—the Afghan people will remain trapped in an endless cycle of dependency, extremism, and despair.