After twenty years of being wilfully misled by Pakistan, the Western world—led by the United States—still refuses to confront the reality that it has been deceived over Afghanistan. Even now, as the Taliban sweeps across the country, capturing nearly fourteen provincial capitals and forcing the surrender of the Kunduz-based Army Corps, Washington and its allies cling to hollow “peace talks,” empty statements, and toothless warnings. Years ago, the Taliban was correctly labelled the “wrong enemy.” The real adversary—Pakistan—continues to manipulate the West with duplicity, posing as a mediator while, in practice, doubling down on support for the Taliban’s military campaign. Shockingly, Islamabad is getting away with it.
Pakistan’s Enduring Bet on the Taliban
For Pakistan, the Taliban has always been the first and only choice in Afghanistan. From the group’s emergence in the 1990s, Pakistan armed and advised them, even granting access to arms dumps in Spin Boldak and directing offensives against the Mujahideen government of 1992. Islamabad was the first to recognise the Taliban regime after it seized Kabul, and throughout its five-year rule, Pakistan provided diplomatic, financial, and military backing.
After 9/11, Pakistan offered sanctuary, opened its borders, and even airlifted Taliban fighters from Kunduz under the gaze of global powers. Over the next two decades, it carefully rebuilt the movement and maintained firm control. Having invested in the Taliban for so long, Islamabad views the group’s return to Kabul as its own triumph.
The claim that Pakistan is pushing the Taliban towards dialogue, that it has lost leverage, or that it fears a Taliban monopoly is little more than theatre. This is classic Pakistani doublespeak: gloating internally about defeating another superpower while feigning concern externally to placate the West. Ministers, government officials, and even the President have openly praised the Taliban, while state-linked campaigns such as #TalibanOurGuardians trended on Twitter.
Pakistan’s Dual Narrative
Domestically, the narrative is one of triumph—Pakistan has ousted India and the US from Afghanistan, humiliated the West, and struck a blow for Islam. This message is designed to consolidate public support for the Taliban. Internationally, Pakistan projects false despair, claiming that Taliban victory threatens its strategic environment, while preaching dialogue and political settlements. In reality, neither Pakistan nor the Taliban have any interest in negotiation. Their shared objective is clear: the rapid capture of Kabul, presenting the world with a fait accompli.
Some states will withhold recognition, but others—China, Russia, Iran, and parts of Central Asia—are likely to join Pakistan in legitimising the Taliban regime. For Islamabad and Beijing alike, Taliban rule serves their wider strategic designs. Pakistan hopes to secure access to Central Asia and transform itself into a regional hub, while China sees new opportunities to stabilise its western frontier and render its CPEC investments viable. In return, the Taliban will remain dependent on both, suppressing any threats to their interests.
The Risks of Adventurism
Rawalpindi’s generals envision Afghanistan as a springboard for renewed confrontation with India, using Afghan territory as a “terror factory.” Yet, their history of reckless adventurism suggests otherwise. From Kargil to covert wars, Pakistan’s military has repeatedly embarked on grand schemes that have unravelled disastrously. The notion that this time will be different betrays a refusal to learn from the past.
Analysts caution that Islamabad’s vision is overambitious and fraught with risks. Afghanistan’s volatility, ethnic divisions, and competing interests make Pakistan’s strategy precarious. But the generals remain convinced, dismissing alarmism and clinging to the belief that they have accounted for every contingency.
Holding Pakistan Accountable
The West may have no appetite to reverse its withdrawal from Afghanistan, but it can still hold Pakistan accountable. For this, the US and its allies must finally recognise Islamabad as the true spoiler in Afghanistan and the wider region. Pakistan’s actions, emboldened by Chinese backing, have destabilised South Asia and risk spilling over into Central Asia and Russia.
The coming weeks will reveal whether the US is willing to exercise political will and use its vast leverage against Pakistan. Thus far, Islamabad and the Taliban have calculated—correctly—that Western fatigue and indecision will shield them from meaningful consequences. Inside Afghanistan, however, Pakistan will continue to press forward, ensuring the Taliban juggernaut cannot be stopped until Kabul is firmly under its control.