Pakistan today faces an acute crisis of governance, with serious external policy and national security challenges compounding its already fragile internal situation. The shifting regional landscape—particularly after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan—has exposed Pakistan’s vulnerabilities. Yet, the government appears oblivious to the gravity of the crisis.
The Afghan Crisis and Refugee Burden
The turmoil in Afghanistan has generated significant economic and security spillovers for Pakistan. Since the fall of Kabul in August, the UNHCR estimates that over 90,000 new Afghan refugees have entered Pakistan by late September, with more arriving daily. At the Torkham border, chaotic scenes erupted when thousands of Afghans were denied entry by Pakistani forces.
The IMF has warned that a prolonged refugee crisis could cost Pakistan $500 million annually. Already, Pakistan hosts 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees and an estimated two million undocumented Afghans. Yet, after four decades, Afghans in Pakistan remain “outsiders,” deprived of civic rights, legal protection, and social acceptance.
While Prime Minister Imran Khan repeatedly promised citizenship for Afghan refugees, those assurances remain unfulfilled. Unlike in the past, when Pakistan leveraged refugee hosting to extract strategic funding as a US ally, today’s influx yields no material advantage. Consequently, Islamabad has declared it will not accept further refugees and has begun deporting new arrivals. At the same time, Pakistan continues to use the refugee card to lobby for international aid.
Rising Militancy and Crime
The instability in Afghanistan has emboldened militant groups inside Pakistan. Reports suggest that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters, operating from Kunar and Nangarhar, have infiltrated Pakistan disguised as refugees. Since regrouping last year, the TTP has intensified attacks on Pakistani security forces, particularly in Balochistan and the tribal belt.
Urban centres are not immune. Karachi faces an alarming rise in violent crime. In September alone, 4,593 cases of vehicle theft and street crime were reported, including incidents in upmarket areas like Clifton and DHA. Kidnappings for ransom are also on the rise.
Meanwhile, Islamic State–Khorasan (IS-K) poses a direct challenge to both the Taliban and Pakistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has witnessed a spate of militant attacks since August. Of the nine terrorist incidents in September, eight were claimed by the TTP. Despite international commitments, the Afghan Taliban continues to provide ideological and strategic sanctuary to groups launching attacks inside Pakistan.
Mounting Financial Crisis
Pakistan’s economy is straining under twin deficits—fiscal and current account—compounded by COVID-19. With World Bank and ADB programme loans suspended, Pakistan faces a looming external financing crisis. The rupee has hit a record low of 174 to the dollar, fuelling inflation and eroding purchasing power.
Hoarding of dollars has intensified, with funds also flowing informally to Afghanistan via hawala channels. Afghan refugees settled in Pakistan are sending cash to families left behind, further draining Pakistan’s reserves. The Imran Khan government requires $51.6 billion in external financing (2021–2023) just to stay afloat.
Food inflation has soared over the past two years, driven not only by currency depreciation but also by poor governance, weak enforcement of competition laws, and the dominance of the informal economy. According to the World Bank, Pakistan now ranks among the top ten nations with the largest foreign debts.
Civil–Military Tensions
Compounding these crises is a political standoff between the military and the civilian government. The dispute erupted after ISPR announced on 6 October that Lt-Gen Faiz Hameed would be replaced as DG ISI by Lt-Gen Nadeem Anjum. The Prime Minister’s reluctance to ratify the appointment has exposed the fragility of the “hybrid” power-sharing arrangement between the PTI and the military.
Civilian control under Imran Khan remains illusory, as the military continues to dominate foreign, security, and domestic affairs. Observers note that the two sides diverge on how to deal with the TTP, with Khan appearing overly eager to negotiate with the group responsible for thousands of Pakistani deaths.
Leadership Vacuum
Faced with mounting challenges, Prime Minister Imran Khan has turned increasingly to populist rhetoric, invoking morality and Islamic history rather than offering substantive policy solutions. His government’s governance record is marked by authoritarian tendencies—crackdowns on political opponents, attempts to unilaterally alter election laws, and a refusal to engage constructively with the opposition.
Instead of addressing urgent issues such as the economic downturn, inflation, and militancy, the PTI government has chosen divisive politics. The ISI appointment dispute has further weakened Khan’s already unstable coalition and revealed his limited ability to confront the military establishment.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s governance crisis is multi-dimensional—a failing economy, rising militancy, a refugee burden, urban crime, and civil–military tensions. Yet, the government’s response remains one of denial, distraction, and rhetoric. Without a fundamental course correction, Pakistan risks descending deeper into instability, with dire consequences for itself and the region.