The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has emboldened radical and extremist forces across the border in Pakistan. With a porous frontier and long-standing ideological ties, fears are mounting that instability could spill over, weakening Islamabad’s fragile control and raising the unthinkable prospect of Taliban access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Growing Global Alarm
Pakistan is estimated to possess around 150 nuclear warheads, developed through stolen technology and opaque proliferation networks. With widespread Taliban sympathies within Pakistan’s society, and even elements of its security establishment accused of nurturing extremism, the danger of nuclear assets falling into terrorist hands cannot be dismissed.
Former diplomats and military experts warn that the Taliban have already signalled nuclear ambitions. The group has reportedly appointed Engineer Najeebullah as head of “atomic energy,” raising fears they may eventually seek nuclear capability of their own. Should Pakistan’s institutions collapse under Taliban influence, the world could face a catastrophe of unimaginable scale.
American Concerns
Top US officials have issued stark warnings:
- General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, admitted that the rapid US withdrawal heightened risks to “Pakistan’s stability and the security of its nuclear arsenal.”
- John Bolton, former US National Security Adviser, warned: “The Taliban in control of Afghanistan threatens the possibility of terrorists taking control of Pakistan … that means maybe 150 nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists.”
These warnings underscore Washington’s fear that the Taliban’s victory could destabilise Pakistan itself.
Red Flags Abroad
Concerns extend beyond South Asia. In the UK, an Afghan national suspected of Taliban links, Waheed Totakhyl, was recently found loitering near a nuclear submarine base in Scotland. Authorities discovered he had previously called for killing US soldiers, while his brother is a Taliban commander. The incident has reinforced suspicions that Taliban sympathisers are probing nuclear vulnerabilities globally.
Past Warnings
Alarm bells over nuclear smuggling are not new. In 2020, Khojesta Fana Ebrahimkhel, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Austria, warned that insurgents and terrorist groups were active in regions vulnerable to illicit trafficking of nuclear materials. Author Ronald Jacquard has since cautioned that Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile “cannot be considered remote” from Taliban influence after their takeover of Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Complicity
Afghanistan’s former democratic government repeatedly accused Pakistan of aiding the Taliban’s resurgence, enabling Islamist radicals who reject pluralism and rule of law. Critics argue Islamabad’s intelligence services have long maintained ties to the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, making the threat to nuclear security even more serious.
Pressure on Washington
On Capitol Hill, 68 US lawmakers have written to President Joe Biden demanding clarity on his strategy to prevent the Taliban from destabilising Pakistan and accessing nuclear weapons. The letter asks:
- “What is your plan to ensure that the Taliban do not destabilise its nuclear neighbour Pakistan?”
- “Do you have a plan to ensure that Afghanistan, under Taliban occupation, will never acquire a nuclear weapon?”
A Global Nightmare Scenario
The Taliban’s ascendancy has already plunged Afghanistan into humanitarian and political crisis. But should Pakistan—an unstable nuclear power—succumb to similar forces, the consequences would be catastrophic for global security. The international community now faces an urgent question: how to prevent South Asia from becoming the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint.