A new axis of terror is taking shape in the Af–Pak theatre, forged through the convergence of interests between Pakistan, China and Turkey, with the Taliban eager to cooperate. The pretence is over; there is no longer any smoke screen.
Pakistan has abandoned any illusion of being a reliable ally of the West, even though it still relies on American support for its fragile economy. This was made clear in late June when Prime Minister Imran Khan and his finance minister, Shaukat Tarin, rolled back commitments for an IMF bailout. In the same breath, Khan publicly refused to grant the US bases, described Osama bin Laden as a “martyr,” and dismissed any criticism of China’s treatment of its Uighur Muslims.
Taliban’s Assurances to China
The Taliban have since sought to allay Beijing’s fears over the Uighur issue. China worries that Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, could become a base for the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which wages an insurgency in Xinjiang. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen declared: “We will no longer allow China’s Uighur separatist fighters (from Xinjiang).” While he admitted some militants had previously sought refuge in Afghanistan, he promised they would not be hosted again.
China has heard such pledges before—from Pakistan—but has seen little action in curbing Uighur militancy moving through the Pakistan–Afghanistan border region and the Chinese-built Karakoram Highway in Pakistan-held Kashmir. Whether the Taliban prove more reliable than their patrons remains doubtful.
Turkey’s Role
Turkey fits into this emerging axis for different reasons. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aspires to lead the Islamic world and has courted favour with Beijing by sidelining Uighurs who sought refuge in Turkey. He has also offered to take over security at Kabul airport, hoping this will be a stepping stone for expanding Turkish influence in Afghanistan, building on its earlier NATO presence. Whether this ambition is realistic or merely symbolic is open to question.
China as the Principal Actor
From all indications, it is China—Pakistan’s “iron brother”—that is poised to fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan. Equipped with money and weapons, Beijing is well-placed to provide the Taliban with what they need should nationalist forces attempt to resist their expansion.
Pakistan, China and Turkey all share an interest in Afghanistan’s rich mineral and natural resources. Iran, too, may eventually join this axis to secure its own economic and diplomatic position.
Pakistan’s Calculations and Risks
The Taliban are playing their cards shrewdly, courting all these powers to secure investment and manpower. Pakistan, which provided the seedbed for the Taliban in its madrassas with Saudi money and CIA weapons, is once again central to this axis. It was from Quetta that the Taliban ran their operations after 9/11 through the Quetta Shura. Significantly, nearby lay an airbase used by the Americans for operations in Afghanistan—including the one that eventually found Osama bin Laden.
Imran Khan’s description of bin Laden as a martyr is a telling signal to Islamist constituencies at home. Meanwhile, Pakistani leaders scarcely hide their satisfaction at India’s discomfort. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid has openly hailed the Taliban as “Good Taliban,” while ISI chief Faiz Hameed has gloated that India’s $4 billion investment in Afghanistan is “sinking.”
Yet Pakistan may be celebrating too soon. The Taliban still refuse to recognise the Durand Line, the disputed border dividing Afghanistan and Pakistan. Islamabad’s dream of “strategic depth” could well remain a mirage, while the Taliban may eventually lay claim to Pashtun-majority areas inside Pakistan itself.
Implications for Afghanistan and the World
History offers a sobering reminder: when the Taliban last held power, they dragged Afghanistan back by centuries. Already, in areas under their control, they are enforcing their primitive worldview with ruthless zeal. Their return to power bodes ill not only for Afghanistan but also for Pakistan.
US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad has said that while Washington is ending its military engagement, it will maintain financial and political support for the country. Yet past experience shows that money alone cannot rebuild Afghanistan. The only real hope lies in supporting nationalist forces willing to resist the Taliban—many of whom have already taken up arms on their own.
It is a wake-up call for the world’s Good Samaritans: if they truly seek to help Afghanistan, they must rally behind these forces before the new axis of terror consolidates its grip.