After twelve years of conflict, Syria remains trapped in a destructive stalemate. The Assad regime, though still in power, controls only part of the country, while millions of Syrians endure displacement, poverty, and insecurity. In regime-held areas, the booming captagon trade—valued at tens of billions of dollars—has transformed Syria into a narco-state, fuelling regional instability and undermining security across the Gulf and Europe.

Despite these realities, some Arab states, encouraged by shifting regional dynamics, are pursuing normalisation with Damascus. Such expectations are misguided. The regime is neither capable nor willing to dismantle trafficking networks it depends upon, nor to undertake reforms that would improve the lives of Syrians. Normalisation would simply entrench Assad’s rule, legitimise his war crimes, and obstruct any meaningful political process.

This discussion took place at the Rosewood Hotel, London, with Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, former Chief of the General Staff and Director of UK Special Forces, as guest of honour and first speaker, followed by Randa Kassis, President of the Astana Platform, as the second speaker.